¿Windows 8 en el filo de una navaja?

Por primera vez, leo en un comentarista la posibilidad de que Windows 8 pudiera convertirse en una falla catastrófica de Microsoft. En realidad, una relectura de la gran cantidad de información publicada en los últimos días muestra signos no muy tranquilizadores. El más reciente, la campaña algo acuciante en busca de desarrolladores y empresas que soporten Metro y Windows Phone 7 y 8, en sus aplicaciones y lenguajes, y la continuada ratificación de la limitación o extinción de soporte de .NET y Silverlight, respectivamente. Por largo tiempo, se percibía que la irrupción masiva de dispositivos móviles representaba una amenaza cierta a la hegemonía de mercado de Microsoft. Si Metro era la respuesta de la empresa a este desafío, hoy da la impresión de que pudiera ser un fiasco mayor, que comprometa su posición en todos los frentes. Pareciera que fue lanzado sin abrir suficientemente su arquitectura a proveedores y socios de negocios, de tal forma que hoy pudiera no contar con suficientemente respaldo de quienes deberían soportarlo. Así sucede aparentemente en el mercado de ARM. Dice Patrick Moorhead en Forbes:

As we head toward the availability of Windows 8 in Q4, the amount of information available about X86-based platforms dwarfs that of ARM-based platforms from NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Texas Instruments.  One example is the Consumer Preview (CP).  The Windows 8 CP on X86 (Intel/AMD) was and still is openly available for any consumer on the planet to try, without exaggeration.  In contrast, there’s Windows 8 on ARM (WOA) where, without an NDA, no one can even touch a system.  There can be a few reasons for that, including secrecy, the unique ARM software images required, it just isn’t ready yet, or a combination of all.  With approximately six months until launch, is Microsoft ready for Windows 8 on ARM? (...) Microsoft has written a lot about this on their Building Windows 8 blog, but the questions still remain on specificity.  Specifically which hardware peripherals work well, which ones work but without all features and which ones just don’t work.  This means USB printers, webcams, scanners, digital cameras, SD-cards, game controllers, displays, headsets, speakers, etc.  Sure, drivers are being written now and will be updated well after launch, but without anything definitive, what are OEMs and channel partners to plan?  The channel needs to prepare appropriately with the right peripherals that are compatible with WOA systems. (...) We’re six months from launch and channel partners and OEMs should know this already to prepare for the holidays.

Más aún, está claro que Windows 8 no será compatible hacia atrás para ARM: <<For some it may be an obvious thing to state, but Windows 8 on ARM will be a completely blank canvas with no compatibility mode for any software running on previous x86 versions of Windows. If a developer wants an older app to run on Windows 8 ARM, they need to develop a new version specifically for the platform>>
Mary Jo Folley escribe el 3 de abril acerca de la llamada de Microsoft a escribir aplicaciones y adaptar lenguajes a WinRT, destacando que <<Microsoft officials have been encouraging developers to consider HTML5/JavaScript and C++ when writing new Metro-style apps. However, as Development and Platform Evangelist (DPE) Jerry Nixon recently noted, it’s the managed languages and .Net that seem to be where most of the Windows 8 developer interest is — at least when measured in terms of developer questions and comments on the MSDN forums (...) I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising, however, that devs prefer using what they already know>>. La propia comunidad de desarrolladores de Microsoft se encuentra desorientada, y probablemente defraudada, sometida a un cambio no esperado, y sometida a la presión de la obsolescencia de todo su desarrollo previo.
 En fin, estos son algunos elementos de los últimos días que marchan en una dirección concurrente. Bajo estos antecedentes, Adrian Kingsley-Hughes, agrega el problema del hardware, para componer un escenario más que complicado para Microsoft:

ZDNet’s Mary Jo Foley wonders when are we going to start seeing ‘reimagined’ hardware that will make using the touch-centric Windows 8 less painful and more compelling.

“The problem is,” writes Foley, “without these next-gen PCs and tablets, it’s hard for me - and I’d think others, too - to really grok how Windows 8 is going to work from running it on PCs and tablets that were designed for a non-touch-centric operating system like Windows 7.”

Yeah, that is a bit of a problem. Especially given that we’re probably six months or so away from Windows 8 being released. So, where is all this cool new hardware?

Don’t hold your breath for it just yet.
We can be certain of one thing. There will be Windows 8-specific hardware, in the form of tablets, ultrabooks and touch-enabled PCs, available at the launch of the operating system. The problem isn’t going to be the availability of hardware, but the price point of the hardware.
Touch adds dollars to a system — especially to the price of a PC, where the market hit rock bottom a long time ago — and it is adding cost at a time when both consumer and enterprise buyers are most sensitive to price. To make matters worse, OEMs currently have no idea how the mass market will react to Windows 8. It could flop like Vista, in which case demand for touch-enabled hardware is going to be very soggy and OEMs will be left struggling to offload hardware. Alternatively, it could be a runaway success like Windows 7 was, in which case it will be harvest time for the OEMs.
Problem is, failure is still very much an option, and the idea of Windows 8 being a catastrophic failure is a massive turn-off for hardware makers; doubly so when they are expected to pour significant capital into design, development and production of Windows 8-specific systems. Failures of devices such as Motorola’s Xoom and RIM’s PlayBook are still on the minds of all OEMs.
Another problem is the incumbent desktop and notebook PC. While Microsoft is undoubtedly embracing touch computing with both hands, we’re still not sure what the game-plan is here. Microsoft has made a lot of noises about how touch is the future because it is better and easier to use, but many others and I still remain unconvinced.
The keyboard and mouse are far too entrenched in computing to be swiped away overnight. I firmly expect that the majority of systems that will ship with Windows 8 over the new operating system’s lifespan will be traditional, non-touch systems featuring keyboards and mice, and the OEMs must also suspect this.
Then there are Windows 8 tablets. It’s here I feel that Microsoft’s new operating system will shine the brightest, but it’s still far too early to say that there’s any guarantee of success. The biggest problem facing OEMs here is that they have to deliver a product that competes favorably with the iPad when it comes to a number of metrics - form factor, weight, battery life and, probably most significant of the lot, price.
If the OEMs can’t get all their ducks in a row here, it could be a bloodbath.
Why are we not seeing some OEMs take a leap of faith now and start releasing touch-enabled hardware powered by Windows 7 in advance of Windows 8? Simple. That would be a bloodbath too. Windows 7 is an appalling choice for touch-enabled hardware. This means that OEMs don’t really have the option of shipping touch-enabled hardware now with the promise of a free upgrade down the line to Windows 8.
Windows 8 will reimagine hardware, just not that much. There will be touch-enabled systems available, but they will command a premium price and appeal to a niche market. The traditional desktop and notebook will continue to be the main platform for Windows 8. There will also be Windows 8-powered tablets, but it remains to be seen just how well these will stack up against the iPad.
Uncertain times lay ahead for the OEMs.

 En estas condiciones, consultoras y empresas planeando su estrategia futura, deberían ser muy prudentes en sus movimientos.